Licence for quotas?:SANJAY KUMAR
February 15, 2010: The Indian Express
But in West Bengal, the Left Front’s many political reasons to keep on pushing for them
The recent announcement of a 10 per cent quota for backward Muslims in state government jobs by the West Bengal government indicates that, though assembly elections are due only next year, the politics of wooing minorities has already begun. This is a clever move to win back backward Muslims, who deserted the Left Front in sizeable numbers during the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. But since the LF lost support amongst various other sections of society, even their return may not be enough for it to hold on to the dominant political position it has enjoyed ever since it came to power in the 1977 assembly elections.
Muslims constitute about one-quarter of the state’s electorate, but since they are concentrated in a few districts, their political influence is greater than that. After the new delimitation of constituencies, Muslims constitute more than a quarter of the electorate in 105 out of 294 assembly constituencies. (In 14, Muslim voters are in a majority.) So Muslim voters can tilt the outcome in about one-third of the seats. No wonder then, the Left Front is trying to woo them.
From the votes the Left polled in the last several elections, it is clear that it was popular amongst voters cutting across communities. Surveys conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) support that idea. But the LF faced a real challenge during the 2009 Lok Sabha elections from the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC) which contested the elections in alliance with the Congress. The TMC-Congress alliance won 25 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats and polled 44.6 per cent of the vote, while the LF won only 15 and polled 43.4 per cent. Since the 2006 assembly elections the Left’s vote share declined by nearly seven percentage points.
The CSDS surveys indicate that since data has been available, Muslims have voted for the Left in sizeable numbers. In every election, half of the Muslim voters voted for the LF; at times that even crossed the 50 per cent mark. Indeed, Muslims were the backbone of the LF’s support base in Bengal. So CSDS’s post-poll survey, conducted after the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, may explain what worries the Front: an evident decline in popularity and support amongst Muslim voters. The support for the LF amongst Muslim voters declined from 45 per cent during the 2006 assembly elections to 39 per cent during the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. This decline in support is more evident amongst lower-class and poorer Muslims; upper-class Muslims still seem to be standing behind the LF. But upper- and middle-class Muslims comprise only 30 per cent of Muslim voters in Bengal.
Two questions which still remain unanswered: will this new reservation policy stand up to judicial scrutiny, given that the Andhra Pradesh high court struck down similar legislation there? Also, even if Muslims are tempted back to the Left Front, will this be enough to guarantee it another electoral victory next year?
The writer is a fellow at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi
